Financial Perspectives

Rental prices tend to lag the corresponding rises in house prices, essentially because rental contracts are generally 6 to 12 months in duration.

With the incredibly strong rise in house prices in Northern Ireland over the last year to 18 months it could only be expected that the rents being asked for would make a move after the customary time lag. Now, the house prices have levelled off at the moment but that’s not stopped the rents starting to shift upwards.

For example, in one estate which we have a vested interest in, a typical house was £130k in September 2006 vs £225k now. The increase in rents being asked is also heading upwards over that time from a typical £425 last year to £495 now. So far that’s only a 16% rental increase compared to the 73% price rise but I suspect that it’s merely a taster of things to come from the landlords as they test the water for reactions to that rise. Certainly if the prices of the houses resume their progress upwards I would be surprised if there wasn’t a certain amount of catching up happening this time next year with the rents.

Perhaps one of the most interesting developments in the mortgage market in recent years is the arrival of chequebook mortgages. That’s “interesting” in the Chinese sense of the term in their curse “may you live in interesting times”.

A key aspect of a mortgage is that it’s a very, very long term committment. Typically the term is at least 25 years over which time untold numbers of changes to your life and lifestyle can take place. Children can arrive, grow up and leave home over that time, interest rates can go from 5% to 15% to 5% (and have done exactly that in the past), the area in which your house is in can even go from “up and coming” through “marked for demolition” and back to “attractive” (which has happened in areas of Belfast). That’s just the changes that can happen to anyone.

So, as I say, the arrival of chequebook mortgages is “interesting”.

For one thing, 25 years is so long that you just don’t think about arriving at the end of such a period and that, for a mortgage product, is a fatal error to make. Chequebook mortgages actively encourage that kind of thinking in that they effectively give you an overdraft of perhaps £100,000 or even more. It’s all too easy to spend that on the day to day things and find that you’ve absolutely no way to cover the final mortgage payment 25 years down the line.

Ah, but you’ll look at your statements all the time, won’t you? Many people don’t but even for those that do, that 25 year period is just too long to appreciate the problems that can befall you by spending just a little bit too much as you go along.

We received an interesting e-mail from one of the European offices looking after consumer affairs last night.

They’re writing on behalf of a Spanish couple who booked with us last July but who didn’t turn up.

Ordinarly, that would mean we’d have billed them as a no-show but at the time the booking system had a technical problem so we weren’t receiving their reservation e-mails and therefore didn’t know that they were coming. Anyway, net effect was that we didn’t charge them although under the terms of the reservation system we were entitled to.

They’ve gone to this European office with their booking confirmation that has a note of the two nights booked and EUR 98 charge. Except, that it isn’t a change: it’s just a note of what they would have to pay.

The Spanish guy in the European office doesn’t understand that at all. They quoted their credit card number and they’ve a statement with EUR 98 on it, they didn’t get their accommodation (because they went to the wrong place) but he believes that they’ve paid it as do they.

Usually the Spanish are much more Internet-savvy than the French but in this area they’re just as far behind in that they assume that they’ve paid when they quote a credit card number yet it’s only used for a guarantee.

I suspect that it’ll run for a bit as he sent another e-mail this morning threatening to translate everything and sent it to the French consumer protection authorities to demand the refund of this EUR 98 which they’ve not paid.