Financial Perspectives

If you’re considering investing outside your own country whether it be in shares or in property you need to consider the interest rate in that country relative to your own and the echange rate with your own currency.

The two tend to be linked and can rarely be considered totally in isolation. If you consider relatively stable currencies then a higher interest rate will tend to make a currency more valuable and conversely a lower interest rate will tend to make it less so. I say “tend to” because it’s far from a direct link as exchange rates are notoriously fickle: if markets take a view that a currency is overvalued then it’ll go down regardless of how high the interest rates are raised in that country.

However, unless you’re into short term trading it’s largely trends in exchange and interest rates that are important rather than the value that either may have at a given time. In fact, the neither the interest rate nor the exchange rate at a given point really matters a great deal but what you do need to do is to keep an eye on the exchange rate which is, usually, the most important variable when you’re investing outside your own country.

This also affects how you should keep score. Say you’re in the UK and you’re investing in America. In that case you need to measure the performance of your portfolio in dollars, not pounds. To rate the performance in pounds is just going to create a false performance statistic as it’ll be affected by the ups and downs of sterling vs the dollar and those can be quite substantial: in the last 20 years the pound has ranged from around $1 to the pound to over $2 to the pound. Obviously you’ll still measure your bottom line performance in sterling in this case but the performance of the portfolio itself is best charted in dollars.

We’ve been looking around the prices of places locally and there’s quite a divergence between what some places are actually worth and what they might sell for at the moment.

For example, there’s a major hotel/restaurant complex near us that’s listed for almost EUR 2.5 million. It’s easily worth that as it’s a recently modernised building with over 30 rooms, large swimming pool, gardens, sports facilities, has a second building under construction to add another 30 rooms and planning permission for a third building for the complex plus extensive grounds.

Unfortunately, that complex is totally out of character with the region. There’s nothing comparable to it locally and for good reason: there just isn’t the market for it here.

So, whilst it might well be worth 2.5 million (and probably more), chances are that it’ll sell for around 1.5 million or so. That’s if it sells at all, of course, as it’s nothing like what people would expect in this area which means that nobody is looking to buy such a facility here.

Rental prices tend to lag the corresponding rises in house prices, essentially because rental contracts are generally 6 to 12 months in duration.

With the incredibly strong rise in house prices in Northern Ireland over the last year to 18 months it could only be expected that the rents being asked for would make a move after the customary time lag. Now, the house prices have levelled off at the moment but that’s not stopped the rents starting to shift upwards.

For example, in one estate which we have a vested interest in, a typical house was £130k in September 2006 vs £225k now. The increase in rents being asked is also heading upwards over that time from a typical £425 last year to £495 now. So far that’s only a 16% rental increase compared to the 73% price rise but I suspect that it’s merely a taster of things to come from the landlords as they test the water for reactions to that rise. Certainly if the prices of the houses resume their progress upwards I would be surprised if there wasn’t a certain amount of catching up happening this time next year with the rents.